An evening with Dr Stanly Johny
Introduction
On Friday, February 28, we had an engaging session by Dr Stanly Johny, the International Affairs Editor with The Hindu.
About Dr Stanly Johny
Dr Stanly Johny is the International Affairs Editor with The Hindu. A PhD in international studies from the Centre for West Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi, he anchors the paper’s international coverage, besides writing editorials, Op-Eds and other reportage. Dr Stanly has been writing on geopolitics and Indian foreign policy for over a decade and has reported from different parts of the world.
Dr Stanly is an IVLP fellow of the U.S. State Department, an India-Australia Youth Dialogue alumnus, and an Indo-Pacific Thinkers Programme (London) invitee. He has also contributed to think tanks such as the Middle East Institute (Washington DC) and the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (New Delhi). His first book, The ISIS Caliphate: From Syria to the Doorsteps of India, was published by Bloomsbury in April 2018. His second book (co-authored), The Comrades and the Mullahs: China, Afghanistan and the New Asian Geopolitics, was published by HarperCollins (March 2022). Dr Stanly has edited Despatches, a volume of reports from around the world and published by The Hindu Group and contributed several chapters to edited volumes on foreign policy and global politics, including India’s National Security Annual Review-2016-17 (Routledge). His third book, Original Sin: Israel, Palestine and the Revenge of Old West Asia, was launched in December 2024.
Dr Stanly is a Visiting Professor at KREA University, Sri City, Andhra Pradesh, an adjunct faculty at Asian College of Journalism (ACJ), Chennai and a Visiting Fellow at Kerala University, Thiruvananthapuram. He is also a member of the Board of Studies of the Centre for Sociology and Research, St. Teresa’s College, Ernakulam.
Background
There is only one nation state, Israel. Palestine is not a State yet. The original UN partition plan of 1947 was to create 2 independent states, one for the Palestinians and the other for the Jewish people. Jerusalem was supposed to be an independent state. The Arabs did not accept that proposal in 1947. And that led to the first Arab Israel war. At the end of the war, Israel captured some 22% more territories than what the UN Plan had originally proposed. So, in 1949, when the ceasefire came into force after the war, Israel was controlling about 77% of historical Palestine.
When we talk about Palestinian territories we mean West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. The 1967 UN Security Council resolution 242 demanded that Israel withdraw from all the occupied Palestinian territories that included Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem. But Israel has not withdrawn from any of these territories.
The yellow patch on the map is Israel proper. The whole territory (yellow and green) was called historical Palestine, a part of the Ottoman Empire. When the Empire collapsed after the end of the 1st World War, the whole region became a British colony. From 1922 to 1948, this was called the British mandated Palestine. During this period, the Jews who were facing systemic persecution in Europe began to arrive and settle down in Palestine. By 1948, there was a sizable Jewish community, roughly 45% of the population. They wanted a Jewish homeland. The British Empire supported their quest for a Jewish homeland, as early as 1917.
The state of Israel came into existence in 1948. That's what led to the first Arab Israel War. At the end of the war, Israel captured the entire territory marked yellow. This came to be known as Israel proper. And in 1967 Israel captured the Palestinian territories as well, which included Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem. So, the whole of historical Palestine, has been under Israel's control since 1967.
The Palestinians do not have a united leadership. In the West Bank, they have the PLO or the Palestinian Liberation organization. This is the internationally recognized Palestinian movement. The PLO which was a 3rd World style guerrilla organization gave up arms in the 1990s and has recognized Israel as a legitimate state. The PLO continues to strive for an independent Palestinian state through dialogue, not through armed resistance.
In Gaza, the Palestinians have Hamas, an Islamist militant group. Hamas hasn't recognized the state of Israel. Hamas wants to continue its militant resistance against Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories. Hamas has been controlling the Gaza Strip since 2005 onwards.
In 2005, Israel pulled back its troops and settlers from Gaza. But its occupation of Gaza did not end. Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza, controlling all the exit and entry points except Rafah, which is on the Egyptian side.
On why Hamas carried out the October 7 attack
Since 1948, for many years, the occupation of the Palestinian territories by Israel was the mainstay of West Asia's geopolitics. But later this issue was pushed to the side. Israel's narrative that Iran, not Palestine, was the main issue, gained currency in the region. Iran was projected as the source of all evils. The Arab countries also faced the threat of Iran. So, the argument was that the Arab nations and Israel must come together to deal with Iran.
The Abraham accords of 2020 were championed by the Trump administration. This involved Israel and four Arab countries: UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. When the Abraham accords were signed, the Palestinians got nothing. In contrast, in 1978, when Egypt signed the Peace Treaty with the Israelis, Israel recognized the Palestinian national identity. In 1994, when Jordan signed a Peace Treaty with Israel, it came after the 1st Oslo agreement was signed. In the Oslo agreement, Israel agreed to the creation of a provisional Palestinian government in the West Bank and Gaza.
Thus in 2020, when the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco signed the normalization agreement with Israel, Palestine was pushed to the margins of West Asia. Not just that. The Biden administration also pushed for a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. When the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited India in September 2023, he told CNN that the Saudis and the Israelis were making progress on a daily basis.
Through the October 7th attack, Hamas wanted to bring the Palestinian issue back to the centre of West Asia's geopolitics. Hamas also assessed that Israel was at a weak point. Israel was ruled by a right religious, polarizing government. When the Government attempted to reform the judiciary, there were massive protests. Netanyahu himself was facing corruption charges. So Israeli society was divided.
When Hamas carried out its violent murderous attack on October 7th, Israel retaliated the next day. What did Israel want to achieve? Israel wanted to crush Hamas and secure the release all the (about 250) hostages taken by Hamas when they carried out the attack.
By January 2025, Israel had killed some 48,000 Palestinians. Some 100,000 Palestinians were wounded and almost the entire population of Gaza, about 2.3 million people had been displaced.
On whether Israel has achieved its objectives
Israel has unmatchable firepower. It is a superior military force, directly backed by and supplied by the United States. Hamas is a ragtag militant group. So, in many ways, it is not a war of equals.
But has Israel met its objectives? Daniel Hagari, Israel's Defence Forces spokesperson admitted three months ago that the idea of Hamas is rooted in the Palestinian people and cannot be destroyed. So, after 15 months of war, Israel realized that it was not destroying Hamas. And it hadn't also secured the release of hostages. In November 2023, there was a 7-day ceasefire, in which Israel got some of the hostages released. And after that throughout the military operation they managed to rescue only a couple of hostages. So, this appears to have prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to enter into a ceasefire agreement, which came into force on January 19th 2025.
This is a 3-phase ceasefire. In phase one, Hamas has to release some 42 hostages. Israel will release more than 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners. In phase 2, both sides are required to bring the war to a lasting end. Israel must withdraw troops from Gaza and Hamas has to release all the hostages. In phase 3, Gaza has to be reconstructed.
February 28, 2025, marked the last day of phase one of the ceasefire. Until now the ceasefire has been successful. Hamas has so far released some 38 hostages. Israel has released more than 1,000 security prisoners. Both sides have stayed away from fighting against each other.
Hamas demands that Israel must withdraw from the whole of Gaza for the hostages to be released. But Israel says that it won't withdraw troops from the Philadelphia corridor. Israel believes that if it does so, Hamas will again start smuggling weapons, using the Egyptian border. Hamas says this is a serious violation of the ceasefire and will not release any more hostages unless Israeli troops are pulled back.
So as we enter phase 2 of the ceasefire, it is likely to collapse. The dilemma is that if Israel withdraws from Gaza, Hamas will be back in power in Gaza. But if Israel doesn't withdraw from Gaza, Hamas will start fighting again. So, we are likely to see a war of attrition.
On how this war has affected the larger West Asian region.
When Israel started fighting Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah a Lebanese Shia militant group backed by Iran, started attacking Israeli positions in solidarity with the Palestinians. After Israel retaliated, the Houthis in Yemen, another Shia militant group backed by Iran, started attacking both Israel and the ships going through the Red Sea or the Suez Canal.
So Israel has not been fighting Hamas alone. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in the north, carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, and Syria. Both on the Lebanese side and in Syria, Israel has targeted a number of Iranian generals and proxies. On April 1st, 2024, Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. Iran saw this as a highly provocative move and carried out a direct missile attack in Israel on April 14th. A few months later, Israel killed Hamas's political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Israel also carried out a military incursion into Lebanon and killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In retaliation Iran carried out a massive ballistic missile attack against Israel on October 1st. And Israel retaliated again. So, we have seen some kind of a regional conflagration where Israel has been fighting the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.
But at the end of the day, Hamas is still there in Gaza. Hezbollah, though weakened is still a very powerful organization. And the Houthis remain a very lethal force. The tactical victory Israel has claimed is the collapse of the government of Bashar Al Assad, in Syria on December 8th. Interestingly, Israel entered into a ceasefire with Hezbollah on November 28th. On November 29th, HTS, a Syrian militant group, started fighting the Asad Government. HTS captured Damascus within 12 days and is now in power. Syria was an important ally of Iran and a land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah. With the fall of the Assad Government, this land bridge has been ruptured. So, Iran will find it difficult to continue to supply Hezbollah. In the past too, Hezbollah had faced military setbacks. But Hezbollah rebuilt itself with supplies from Iran. Now, Iran will find it difficult to continue to supply Hezbollah, because the Syrian government has fallen.
The second factor that strengthens Israel's hands is the return of Donald Trump, to power. President Trump has said the United States will own Gaza. He also wants to transfer the 2.3 million people out of Gaza. It's not practically possible to move them. The Palestinians have been moved out of their home land several times. In 1948, when the State of Israel was created, some 7.5 lakh Palestinians were forced out of their homes. None of them have managed to come back to their home. So, the Palestinians know that once they become refugees, they will never be able to go back to Palestine. So even in Gaza, even when they were living under Israel's bombardment, they refused to leave.
The kind of support Israel is expected to get from the Trump administration has hardened Israel's position. Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanon, but it has not. Israel had to withdraw from the Philadelphia corridor by March 1st but has just stated that it will not do so.
In short, Israel wants to reshape West Asia but it hasn't succeeded so far. But it believes that its hand is now stronger with the fall of the Assad government. The fall of the government offers Israel an opportunity to weaken Hezbollah.
Hamas has brought the Palestine issue back to the fore of West Asia's geopolitics. But at the same time there is no possibility of an immediate peace. Israel can't leave Gaza, because leaving Gaza, means accepting defeat.
Israel wanted to destroy Hamas but has not succeeded. So, Netanyahu would like to continue the fight in one way or the other. And with President Trump being in the White House he has some bandwidth to continue the military operation. This means the collapse of the ceasefire is now more likely.
The Original Sin
Dr Johny briefly explained the logic for the title of his book. The Jews have a Biblical claim over the land. There is mention of a kingdom of Israel in 7th century BC. Jews faced several attacks and expulsions: the Babylonian attack, the Syrian attack, the Roman attack, the sacking of Jerusalem by the Romans in AD 70, and the destruction of the Jewish temple.
The Jewish community has been expelled many times, forcing it to spread out across the world. In Europe, Jews faced the backlash of anti-semitism. For example, during the Black Death, the Jews were held responsible for the plague. They were rounded up and burned alive in London and Birmingham. There have been repeated instances of anti-semitism in European history that culminated in the Holocaust. Some 6 million Jews were killed by the Nazis not only in Germany, but also in other European countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Hungary. Even in France there was a large-scale industrial scale hunting of Jews. So, this systemic discrimination forced the Jews to migrate into Palestine.
When the Jews started migrating into Palestine, they were welcomed by the Ottoman Sultan. Theodor Herzl, the Austro-Hungarian Jewish journalist, lawyer, writer, playwright and political activist who was the father of modern political Zionism wanted the Jewish communities to be set up in Palestine, and the Sultan allowed him to do that. Herzl even promised to take care of the Ottoman Empire's finances if Jews were given autonomy in the Ottoman Palestine. So, the Jews were welcomed at that point of time. But by the end of the Second World War, Jews had become a sizable population. They had built a state within the State, had a paramilitary organization, and also wanted a homeland in Palestine.
The Palestinians at that time claimed that it was a British colony. They wanted the British to leave like they left India but not partition Palestine. They wanted the local inhabitants, including Jews and Arabs, to take over the land. But that's not what happened. The UN set up a commission which suggested a partition that did not go through smoothly. Then the state of Israel came into existence, which resulted in the expulsion of some 750,000 Palestinians. They are still not allowed to go back to their homes because Israel will not let that happen.
So, the war did not begin on October 7th. There is a long history of Jewish migration, the expulsion of the Palestinians, the creation of an independent Jewish homeland and the unrealized quest for Palestinian statehood. The whole world talks about a two-state solution. An independent sovereign Israeli state already exists with international recognition. However, the Palestinian state has not become a reality, though countries across the world support it.
Q&A
Dr Stanley was a B Com student. But he has always been interested in politics and international relations (IR). So, after completing his BCom, he decided to study IR. Dr Jenny, his professor, who was a scholar in Middle East had travelled extensively in the region and written books about it. She has been a major influence on his academic career.
Dr Stanely has always found a connect with West Asia. From a great power and economic point of view, this is a vital region. At one point of time, the British were greatly involved in the region. After the discovery of oil, the Americans came into the picture. The Soviets and the Americans were always competing for influence in the region. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States retained its total grip over the region. Today, practically everybody is an American ally. The Israel Palestine conflict also has religious connotations. Israel has always had a Biblical claim over the land.
All in all, this is one of the most complicated issues of the post-war world for which we still don't have a solution. Dr Stanley was fascinated by all these aspects: faith, history, geopolitics, great power rivalry. So that drew him to the region.
After he became a journalist, Dr Stanly started reading more books and writing about the region. He got opportunities to travel to this region. He has been to Iran, West Bank, Ramallah, and Jerusalem, Israel many times. On the ground reporting gave him a completely different perspective. Even after the war broke out, he was there on the Gaza border, on the northern border, where action was happening between Hezbollah and Israel. So, all these things built the interest in him and he continues to be a keen student of the region.
Everybody has accepted the two-state solution as an ideal solution. The state of Israel has been created. But it is not so easy to create the state of Palestine. First, we need to demarcate the border. We must then determine the capital of a Palestinian state. Then we have to decide who should be the citizens of the Palestinian State.
What should be the border of a future Palestinian state? The Palestinians say it should be based on the 1967 border, or, according to the UN. Security Council resolution 242. But Israel doesn't accept that. The 1967 border includes the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the whole of Gaza strip. Within the 1967 border, there are 700,000 Jewish settlers living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. They are Israeli citizens. So, if it accepts the 1967 border, either Israel has to pull them back, or let them live in a foreign country. Which Israeli Prime Minister would be prepared to do this? This is one of the consequences of Israel's own policy of promoting settlements in Palestinian territory.
And then comes the capital. According to the UN Plan, Jerusalem was supposed to be an international city. But for all practical purposes, Western Jerusalem is Israel's capital. Israel's Knesset, the Parliament, the foreign Ministry and the residence of the Prime Minister are all in Western Jerusalem. The Palestinians say that since Israel has taken over the West, East Jerusalem should be the capital of a future Palestinian state. But the old city, which is in the East is sacred for all three Abrahamic faiths. For example, the Wailing Wall, which is the holiest place in Judaism, is in the old city. The Wailing Wall is part of the compound called Harama Sharif where the Al Aqsa Mosque, the 3rd holiest place in Islam stands. The Muslims believe it is from this spot that the Prophet ascended to the heaven. And if we walk some 500 meters up the hill, we will reach the Church of Holy Sepulchre, where the Christians believe Jesus was crucified, buried, and rose from the dead. So, for all the three Abrahamic faiths, east Jerusalem is a holy city. The Palestinians say Israel has taken West Jerusalem and they must be given East Jerusalem. The Israelis say it is in East Jerusalem, where their holiest place is situated, and they are not going to leave East Jerusalem. So, there is no consensus on the capital.
Finally, some 7.5 lakh Palestinians were displaced in 1948. According to international laws they have a right to return. But Israel is not going to let them return. If they return, Israel's demography will change. Israel is a country that prides on its Jewish character. If 700,000 Palestinians come back, Israel's demography would change, and Israeli leadership would not accept this.
So, history, faith, politics, nationalism, settlement, everything makes this issue complicated. That's why we don't have a solution.
Historically, India has been a champion of the Palestinian cause. That position has evolved from the 1990s onwards. India established a full diplomatic relationship with Israel in 1992, when the Congress was in power. From 1992 to 2014, India supported the creation of an independent Palestinian State, based on the 1967 border with East Jerusalem as capital. Since 2015, India has continued to support the creation of Palestinian State but without talking about the border. India is committed to a two-state solution. So, India's position has evolved, but it hasn't changed.
Consider India's voting record after the October 7th war began. Over the last 15-16 months there have been 11 votes at the UN General Assembly. India abstained from 2 but voted in favour of 9 resolutions which were critical of Israel. India did this despite having excellent ties with Israel especially under the current government.
India's position towards West Asia has 3 different pillars: Israel, Arab world and Iran. The Arab world is important because more than 8 million Indians are working in the Gulf. There is a possibility of a larger conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iran is just across the gulf. If there is an open war between Israel and Iran, the Gulf countries could be dragged into the conflict. That would be a nightmarish scenario for India because millions of Indians are there. So, India's ultimate interest is peace and stability in the region.
India is dependent on energy imports. More than 80% of our energy requirements are met through imports. The Gulf plays a critical role in our energy security. So when the Houthis started attacking oil tankers in the region, the Indian Foreign Minister went to Iran to use that country’s influence to convince the Houthis to spare Indian ships. If we look at it from a people to people point of view, energy security point of view, economic security point of view, India's interest is peace and stability in the region.
For lasting peace and stability in the region we need to address the Palestine question. That's why India has continued to support a two-state solution.
The axis of resistance has been weakened. Hezbollah has faced military setbacks. It has lost many of its leaders and faced military setbacks. The military infrastructure of Hamas has been degraded. And the fall of the Syrian government is a clear setback to the axis, as it creates hurdles for Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah.
But it doesn't mean that the axis of resistance is out of action. Hezbollah remains a very powerful movement in Lebanon. Israel wants to destroy Hezbollah and Hamas but has not been able to do so. The Houthis remain a very powerful force. On June 18th the Houthis launched a massive missile attack in Israel, over a distance of some 2,000 kilometres. So, the axis of resistance is weak, but it is not out of action.
There are growing allegations (by countries like South Africa) that Israel is committing genocide. And then there are arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against Israeli, Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant for committing crimes against humanity.
The world has changed a great deal over the past 5 weeks. Until a few months ago the United States was the major source of support for Ukraine. Now the Trump administration says that Ukraine will not become a NATO member. The US will not provide any kind of security guarantee for Ukraine. And if at all Europe provides security guarantees, they cannot be covered under NATO’s collective security clause. Ukraine is also unlikely to get its territories back. Putin has said that he is not going to abandon the territories Russia has captured and won't tolerate any kind of foreign troops in Ukraine. Trump has accepted all these conditions.
The Americans and the Russians have started direct talks in Riyadh. In the UN Security Council, the Americans have pushed a major resolution which doesn't call it a Russian invasion but a Russia-Ukraine conflict. So, the narrative has completely shifted. Trump has even blamed Ukraine for the war and said that Ukraine shouldn't have started the war.
Without American support, Ukraine doesn't stand a chance. That is a reality. Ukraine has lost more than 20% of its territory and lost tens of thousands of men. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country. Now the Americans are telling them that they can’t become a NATO member. And they will also not get any security guarantees. All this at a time when the Russians are making advances on the ground.
The Americans probably want to disentangle themselves from Europe and focus more on China. In the 1970s, Secretary Henry Kissinger reached out to China because the Soviets were America's number one enemy. Now the Americans see China as their main rival. So, they are reaching out to the Russians. Trump seems determined to bring the war to an end.
Is this a war or a conflict? We can use different phrases. But it is essentially a war. However, it is not a war between Gaza and Israel or a war in Gaza. It is basically a war on Gaza.
Religion is an important factor in the conflict. That is why the Israelis, and the Palestinians are not able to decide which part of Jerusalem they should keep. In Israel’s ruling coalition, we have the orthodox Jewish parties and the far-right parties. On the Palestinian side, Hamas is an Islamist militant organization. For Hamas, religion is important, and part of their political identity and ideology. So, religion will continue to play an important role.
But ultimately, it is a political question: the continuing occupation of the Palestinian territories by Israel. The inability to find a solution to this problem of occupation forms the core of the conflict and religion continues to play a major supporting role.