An evening with Air Marshal Anil Khosla: The dragon vs the Elephant
On Friday, June 9, we had a fascinating session by Air Marshal Anil Khosla, the former Vice Chief of Air Staff. He spoke about India-China relations. As he explained, dealing with China is as much a mind game as a real conflict.
Today, India, Pakistan, and China from a strategic triangle in geopolitics. Both Pakistan and China are nuclear powers. Pakistan is an irritant and China a major challenge. China is colluding with Pakistan.
The conflicts we see today in the region are the result of cartographic mistakes. The British divided the boundaries based on the map without considering the ground realities. This resulted in plenty of scope for ambiguity and misinterpretation.
The full session can be accessed at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzmYTBHrlgk&t=9sAbout Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd)
Air Marshal Khosla holds the distinction of being an A2 category flying instructor and a fighter strike leader. During his career, Air Marshal Anil Khosla amassed over 4000 hours of accident-free flying, specializing in the maritime role. He flew various aircraft, including Jaguar, Mig-21, and Kiran, and gained expertise in both Ground attack and Air Defence roles.
Air Marshal Khosla's distinguished service in the Indian Air Force has been recognized with three presidential awards: the Param Vishisht Seva Medal (PVSM), Ati Vishisht Seva Medal (AVSM), and Vayu Sena Medal (VM). He has also received commendations from the Chief of Air Staff (CAS) and the Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief (AOC-in-C) during his flying training period as a cadet.
Air Marshal Khosla holds two M Phil degrees in defence and strategic studies. He was awarded the Commandant's Medal during the Higher Command Course at the Army War College. He has also attended the Senior Defence Management Course at the College of Defence Management and the National Defence College.
Air Marshal Khosla has held several important appointments, including Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Air Command, Director General of Air Operations, Senior Air Staff Officer of the Central Air Command, Air Officer Commanding J&K, and AOC Maritime Air Operations. He has served in all the operational commands of the IAF, commanded two important operational bases, and worked extensively with the Army, Navy, and various government ministries and agencies.
Air Marshal Khosla has delivered talks on military subjects and strategic issues at prestigious institutions such as the National Defence College, College of Air Warfare, Army War College, College of Naval Warfare, and Defence Services Staff College. He is a distinguished fellow at the United Services Institute (USI) and the Centre of Air Power Studies (CAPS) and serves on the editorial boards of the College of Air Warfare Journal and CAPS Journal (Blue Yonder). He is also a strategic advisor to the Aerospace and Defence Division of the Synergia Foundation and an instructor at the Peninsula Foundation.
Apart from his professional pursuits, Air Marshal Khosla enjoys hobbies such as golf, billiards, snooker, and puzzle-solving, in which he has achieved national-level recognition.
China vs India
China and India are old civilizations. They are heavily populated with about 40% of the global population. They got independence at the same time. But China has moved ahead. Its GDP today is 5 times that of China. The balance of trade is also in China’s favour.
China is autocratic, atheist and communist. India is democratic and secular though the people are generally religious. India too aspires to be a global power, but it does not go overboard with its ambitions.
Upto 1959, the relations between the two countries were good. After a failed Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled to India and sought refuge. India granted him asylum and allowed the establishment of the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamshala. The Dalai Lama has resided in India since then. The Chinese do not like this at all.
in the early 1960s, India and China disputed the border between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet. In 1962, the dispute escalated into a full-scale war, resulting in heavy casualties for India and a Chinese victory. The conflict ended with a ceasefire. But the border issue remained unresolved. Prime Minister Nehru’s’ policy toward China (Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai) came for sharp criticism.
In 2017, India and China engaged in a tense military standoff in the Doklam plateau, a disputed region between China and Bhutan. India tried to prevent China from constructing a road in the area. The crisis was eventually resolved diplomatically. The troops from both sides withdrew.
In June 2020, a violent clash occurred between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley, resulting in the deaths of soldiers from both sides. This was the most serious escalation in decades. Several rounds of military and diplomatic talks followed. This led to the withdrawal of troops from the contested areas. However, tensions along the border remain.
China is not happy that India is hobnobbing with the west. They do not like India standing up against them. The Chinese perceive India as a roadblock to regional dominance.
For the Chinese, all engagements are for their own benefit. India gives due consideration to mutual gains. Typically, India looks at countries as friends, enemies or neutral. But China looks at countries as either enemies or subordinates.
India is a democracy. Sometimes this can be a weakness as policy implementation takes time. China is an autocracy. It can be described as oppressive, dictatorial, unreliable, and deceitful. Within China, the party is supreme. One must toe the line or get eliminated. The strategy is to keep people in their tortoise shell.
India is quite different in the way it looks at the world. India also has a motivated defence force. We do military exercises with many countries and come out with flying colours. But one mistake we have made is that we have failed to invest in building military capabilities. We did not anticipate that China would pose a problem. But from 2014, the Chinese have become more belligerent and increasingly powerful. We must accelerate our plans to strengthen the military. This is a weak spot for us. It does take time to develop deterrence capabilities.
The Chinese strategy: String of pearls
The Chinese strategy consists of entanglement, ensnarement, and encirclement. Entanglement is about keeping the pressure without a full blown conflict. Ensnarement is about grabbing territory. Encirclement is best described by the string of pearls strategy.
The Chinese have mastered the string of pearls strategy. They have believed in annexing Tibet and parts of Arunachal Pradesh. Through their financial muscle, they have also got our neighbours on their side: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Burma. China has invested in the construction and expansion of ports in countries such as Pakistan (Gwadar Port), Sri Lanka (Hambantota Port), Bangladesh (Chittagong Port), and Myanmar (Kyaukpyu Port). These ports are strategically located along major sea lanes and provide China with potential naval and logistical advantages.
The Chinese opportunism has been referred to as salami slicing. This is a strategy used in politics, diplomacy, and military operations. Essentially, it refers to incremental and covert actions to achieve larger objectives. Each thin slice of salami taken individually may not be significant, but cumulatively, the entire salami is a wholesome food.
The Chinese mindset
The Chinese are driven by two motivations:
Avoid the century of humiliation at the hands of western powers. This has left an inedible mark on the Chinese psyche.
Get the lost glory back. This is the Middle Kingdom syndrome. The Chinese have for long believed that their country was geographically located at the center of the world. This perception was reinforced by their limited knowledge of lands beyond China's borders at the time.
The Chinese have an expansionist, medieval mindset. They try to achieve their objectives without fighting, in line with the Sun Tsu philosophy. The Chinese have not hesitated to use propaganda or change history to suit their interests. They have often doctored documents to engage in legal warfare. For the Chinese, the ends matter more than the means. They have no qualms about violating human rights or international laws.
China always wants to negotiate from a position of strength. China believes in bilateral and not multilateral negotiations. China is also capable of diversionary tactics.
The Chinese military organization
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), consist of several branches, including the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and Strategic Support Force. These branches work together to ensure China's national defence and security.
The PLA Ground Force is the largest branch of the Chinese military, responsible for land-based operations. The PLA Navy takes care of China's maritime operations and defence. The PLA Air Force is tasked with protecting Chinese airspace, conducting air operations, and providing air support for other branches. It operates a range of aircraft, including fighter jets, bombers, transport planes, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The PLA Rocket Force, previously known as the Second Artillery Corps, is responsible for China's strategic missile and nuclear deterrent capabilities. It operates and maintains China's ballistic missile arsenal, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), medium-range missiles, and conventional precision-strike missiles.
The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) is a relatively new branch established in 2015. It integrates capabilities in space, cyberspace, and electronic warfare to enhance China's information and communication systems, command and control capabilities, and intelligence gathering.
In recent years, China has emphasized developing indigenous defence capabilities, such as advanced fighter aircraft, aircraft carriers, anti-ship missiles, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and cyber warfare.
Q&A
The Chinese are an old civilization. As mentioned earlier, they draw inspiration from their history. Think of the Silk Route. The main aim of the Chinese is to get their lost glory back. By 2049, they want to be economically and militarily No 1 in the world. For them there can only be one Sun in the sky. They are proceeding towards that goal in a scientific and systematic way. They are modernizing their military and getting it ready for fighting wars and embarking on expeditions. The Chinese claim that they are achieving their intermediate milestones without any problem. However, being a closed society, we should take these claims with a pinch of salt.
Economically, China has become very strong. It has emerged as the factory of the world. After the pandemic, companies have been trying to reduce their dependence on China, but this will take a long time. The Chinese have made heavy investments in technology. They have attempted a civil military fusion. They have made important organizational changes keeping in view the future of war.
But the Chinese way of international engagement is putting off many countries. The Chinese have made many enemies. They have hunger for territory which they demonstrated in case of Hongkong. Now they desire to have Taiwan as well. The Chinese have also a hunger for natural resources. They have leveraged their infrastructure building capabilities to spread their wings and ensure access to key raw materials. In all their moves, the Chinese have been guided by self-consideration.
The coming century will belong to Asia. The continent was dominated by the Europeans for a long time. Now the Asian countries are doing well. The demographics is in their favour. The European countries are on the downtrend. It is in the interests of the west to keep India and China at loggerheads. If the two countries collaborate, it will be great for both the countries and for Asia.
At the same time, we should note that trust is broken between the two countries. We must be on our guard. We must read between the sentences, analyse carefully, and look out for any hidden agenda. The Chinese can move forward, backward, and even sideways. They do this to create confusion as part of their diversionary tactics. We should always have a Plan B while dealing with China.
The Chinese do not have the muscle power at the moment to embark on a full-blown conflict. They are trying to achieve their aims without too much fighting. For example, they have made Pakistan a vassal state without using any military force. The Chinese also do not want to antagonise and thus unite the world. That is why they are showing some discretion for now. But come 2049, this stance may change. China may strive for compete dominance of the world.
There is nothing wrong in China pursuing its interests and trying to become the global no 1. The US has also done this. But China has been using unfair means to achieve this objective, including espionage, and stealing of IP. Both China and US have interests. China pursues its interests blatantly. But the US has a more friendly approach.
The US has achieved its military dominance using advanced technology. Consider the F35 aircraft.
The Chinese technology is still not that advanced. They are reluctant to open up as they do want to disclose their fault lines. However, they will continue to leak out false information to influence the enemy.
In India, tech has been used in the civil sector like banks, railways and agriculture and then extended to the military. In China, the deployment has gone on in parallel.
Air Marshal identified some key technologies:
- Quantum computing
- Data and computation
- Miniaturization
- Hypersonics
- Ballistic missile defence capabilities
- Unmanned aerial platforms.
- Anti drone capabilities
It suits China to keep needling us. We cannot afford to be bullied or pushed around. So, we must be proactive. But we cannot afford to be provocative.
We do act when required, quietly behind the scenes. But we must work hard to build our deterrence capabilities. We must forget petty issues and make the investments needed.
We need more airfields and bases. We must build more roads for aircraft to land and take off. We need more helipads.
Amidst the controversy and media hype, the first batch of cadets has already passed out. Instead of debating about a decision already taken, we must see how to make it work. Periodic reviews are needed, and necessary changes must be made to make the scheme vibrant. Individual, political, and organizational interests must be considered together.
Without a team, we cannot make things happen. The human mind is difficult to understand. So, we must deal with people carefully.
We must lead by example. Promotions and appointments do not make us a leader. They only give us opportunities to demonstrate leadership.
We must demonstrate empathy. We must be transparent, open, and honest. We must allow people to speak up. If people toe the line, it is not a good situation. We must encourage out of the box thinking.
We need decision making skills. We should be able to take calculated risks. If things go wrong, we need broad shoulders to absorb the blame and not pass the buck.
India should keep the Chinese engaged. We should avoid a full-fledged war even as we build our military power.
We should have an open mind to collective security. We should join a military alliance.
We should pursue a multi-faceted, multi layered approach while dealing with China.
We should find synergies between the civil/economic and military sectors.
As western companies decouple from China, we have a big opportunity. So far, we have not fully capitalized on it.
We should not lose our neighbours.
We should keep investing in military technology even at the cost of development.
We should give a renewed thrust to self-dependence. The Ukraine war has demonstrated that no one will fight our war.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands is a strategic location for India's defence. The islands are positioned at the entrance of the Malacca Strait, one of the busiest and most important shipping lanes in the world. The islands offer India an extended surveillance capability in the region. With naval bases, airfields, and radar systems strategically located across the archipelago, India can monitor and track maritime movements. The islands house naval facilities, airbases, and defence infrastructure, enabling rapid deployment of naval, air, and land forces. The presence of Indian military assets in the islands serves as a deterrence against potential adversaries. So, we should strengthen our presence in these islands.